It’s Tuesday and I Don’t Know What to Play

The constant Regionals carousel is both a blessing and a curse. On one hand, there is always something significant going on throughout the season, and you can “hop on” after a lengthy period of inactivity at almost any point during the first half of the season. On the other hand, staying up to date and well-practiced with both formats is easier said than done.

We’re a mere four days away from the Regional Championship in Collinsville, and I can safely say that…I don’t feel safe. At all. Whereas my last tournament prediction article was fairly confident, I have little clue what to play. Since I’m sure hundreds of other people are in the exact same position as I am,  thought that rather than offer hardline recommendations on what to play, I could help you through the thought process of choosing a deck – the exact same process which I’m going through right now.

The Difficulties of Moving from Standard to Expanded

For the most part, competitive players live in Standard. It’s the format for at least 70% of smaller tournaments, a majority of Regional Champoinships, all Intercontinental Championships, and the World Championships.  For that reason, it’s often a difficult shift from Standard to Expanded, especially since Expanded has many, many more sets at its disposal…15 main sets, two mini-sets, and 100 promos, to be precise!

1. Different metagame

More variety means more decks, and you’ve got at your disposal the entire history of the last five years. That means some of these decks are older than your children! And your results depend much more heavily on your metagame calls, since some decks are incredibly powerful in the face of unprepared fields.


…Deck and Covers, to be precise.

A good example is Mikey Fouchet’s second place victory at Pennsylvania earlier this season with Accelgor. Ever since this card’s release, the game’s creators have only released more and more hate towards auto-Paralysis, including Pokemon Center Lady, AZ, Keldeo EX/Float Stone, Virizion EX, Wonder Energy, Steel Shelter, Olympia, and even Big Malasada!


(…Well, maybe not.)

You would think that with all these easily-splashable hard counters, Accelgor would never have a place at any tournament where it’s legal. Yet Mikey made the call and profited from the decision. Plus, you’ve only got so many copies of a hate card before it runs out, especially if you’re not hard-teching for Deck and Cover. We also see the same happen with other classic decks of days gone by, including new versions of Eelektrik NVI and Sableye DEX: Even if a deck gains nothing after release of a new set, it could still be a great choice by virtue of the choices everyone else is making.


I've been swimmin' in formats longer than you've been swimmin' in papa.

2. Card Interactions

Of course, new sets coming out can also result in old favorites becoming much more playable. Continuing with our example of Accelgor, it’s changed a lot ever since initial release:

2012: Accelgor/Chandelure NVI/Vileplume UD (can be nearly 100% replicated now thanks to Vileplume AOR)
2013: Accelgor/Gothitelle EOP
2014: Accelgor/Trevenant XY
2015-present: Accelgor/Wobbuffet PHF/other partners

Think about that for a moment: in the half-decade since Accelgor first came out, it’s had at least four very successful iterations, winner more scholarships and cash combined than you may make in a year! That’s because with everything the card pool theoretically took away, the card pool gave back in other avenues. It’s another story entirely if you get the benefits for early adoption of a new variant or idea for the immediate Regional, but playing with your choices and exploring new options can make Expanded feel like the fun mess that it is.

Leading by Following: Relying on the Constants

It’s four days until Collinsville Regionals and a new set is out, yet I still feel somewhat blind. Even as an old school player, it’s still hard to account for not only the latest card interactions, but the trends of the metagame. If Anaheim’s Regional Championship is anything to go by, constantly successful decks work. Of course if my or Drew Kennett’s performances at Anaheim are anything to go by, new decks can work, too. 

Based on a combination of hype and proven results, here is what I consider a good last-minute gauntlet for Collinsville:

Yveltal/Maxie’s
Turbo Darkrai
Trevenant
Darkrai/Giratina
Raikou/Eels
Accelgor
Toadbats
Decidueye/Seismitoad EX
Greninja
Night March
Zygarde/Carbink
Sableye/Garbodor
Primal Groudon
Wailord
Lurantis GX variants
Solgaleo GX variants

Those are a lot of decks, but I’m convinced that if what you play can beat most or even all of the above decks, then you as an individual have a really good chance of winning Regionals this weekend. Of course, that’s just the thing, isn’t? It’s so hard to find something capable of so much metagame coverage, but I think I have four things that will be respectable options: Yveltal/Maxie’s, Decidueye-something, Lurantis-something, or Seismitoad-anything.

1. Something Old

In the face of such an overwhelmingly large, complex metagame, the first and perhaps simplest choice is to run Yveltal/Maxie’s. The advantages are that it’s a proven deck, you beat many fringe rogue ideas that could pop up, and you know a lot of mirror will be at Collinsville, making designing your list easier. The main disadvantage is that you have a very big target on your back. At Anaheim’s Standard format Regional Championship, a lot of decks were prime contenders to win that tournament, and I’m confident that if there are alternate universes, there’s a pretty nice spread of decks winning between each of those universes. For the instant Regional, everyone is thinking about Yveltal as a threat, even if it’s not their choice, potentially starving its maximum potential. As a result, we’ll be getting either one of two possibilities: an Yveltal/Maxie tag-team beat down, or a whole lot of insurgent decks making day two and perhaps even winning.

 Then there’s the other way to look at choosing “something old” – choosing the deck you know best. That doesn’t necessarily mean playing your favorite deck, but maybe running the deck you yourself have had the most success with in the past, or you’re most skilled at piloting. This makes Yveltal/Maxie’s an attractive choice to me, as I’ve been using Yveltal since it came out. This also makes Decidueye an attractive option since it just won me money at my first and only regional this season.

2. Something New

 Speaking of Decidueye…running something new has its advantages, as well. Barring that leafy, ghosty owl I love so much, very few things in Sun and Moon are getting much attention. In all of our rush to “beat tier one,” perhaps we’re ignoring the powerful new possibilities there are? One deck that jumps out to me as being a uniquely good choice in Expanded is Lurantis GX. I know I’m not the only writer who feels this way, but it has great matchups against several of the above-listed decks, including Yveltal, Toadbats, and Trevenant.  Additionally, threats such as Ability lock and even Evolution lock aren’t nearly as potential as they normally would be: Lurantis GX is a self-reliant Stage One Pokemon, so its own necessity for Abilities is fairly low, and its Ability to Hex Maniac its way out of Archeops is a real threat.

3. Something Blue

 Finally, there’s Seismitoad EX. While I haven’t seen the old Toad put up big results at Expanded Regionals this season, it is a constant this format and will continue to do well for as long as it’s legal. No other card gets the most goodies out of an Expanded with Sun and Moon legal than the Quaking Punch monster: in addition to Decidueye GX as a possible alternative to Toadbats, you get Tauros GX as an incredible backup attacker, and Team Skull Grunt as a new way to starve your opponent of resources. Thus, as we discussed earlier with Accelgor, decks that get the most additions to their arsenal when an expansion come out typically do well, making Seismitoad with anything a really respectable call.

Like Lurantis, you could theoretically go very deep into the tournament with a Seismitoad list that’s strong against the mirror. My only concern is that most Seismitoad variants struggle a lot against many of the above-listed decks – perhaps explaining why it hasn’t put up the results that Yveltal has.
 
Conclusion

 I hope my thought process helps you crystallize your own deck choice for the Collinsville Regional if you’re going. In situations like these where you feel lost, it’s incredibly helpful not just to have a variety of good choices available, but to know what makes them good choices in the first place.

‘Til next time, Trainers.

Quick Search 1: Decidueye GX

From time to time, I and others will be doing columns discussing particular cards. Think of these as "card of the whenever," but with a lot more depth and substance. Today, we'll be going over my personal favorite new card out of the entire Sun and Moon expansion: Decidueye GX.
 

Let's hop straight into analysis:


Hunting the most dangerous game: your wallet!

 

Card Overview

 

— Its HP effectively walls everything in the Standard and Expanded formats except for M Rayquaza EX, select Fire attackers, and extremely well-timed Evil Balls from Yveltal EX.

— Taken by itself, Razor Leaf is actually a mediocre attack on something that yields two Prizes for a Knock Out. However, when combined with numerous Feather Arrows over.

-Hollow Hunt GX is a strong attack in either format, but its impact is especially felt in the Standard format, where resource replenishment isn't nearly as efficient.

–Ah yes, how could I ignore the entire reason you're running this card: FEATHER ARROW!!!

 

So good, you'll get it in ink.

 

Line Considerations

How many Decidueye GX do you want in play in order  to reap stacked benefits from Feather Arrow? Theoretically, anything more than one. This means that I would advise against tech or small splash lines of Decidueye  — either go big (at least 3 Rowlet, 2 Dartrix, 2 Decidueye GX) or run none at all. That's in large part because it takes so much before you start seeing the dividends pay off from Decidueye. To start a single Feather Arrow chain "on time" (by turn one or two), you will ALWAYS need 1 Rowlett, 1 Dartrix, 1 Decidueye GX, and 1 Forest of Giant Plants. Add in any search cards you may have used to find the aforementioned pieces, and you're easily looking at having invested 10% of your entire deck in a single effect. A good, gamebreaking effect, but a single effect nonetheless.

However, from a perspective of resource management, it's just more efficient to have a deck utilizing more than a single Decidueye per game. For example, getting out that first Decidueye may have taken 10% of your deck, but because of cards like Battle Compressor and Revitalizer, you can seriously cut down your overall "cost," saving a lot more to close out the game with a fully dedicated, 3-3-3 or 4-4-4 Decidueye deck.

Also, consider your Decidueye line from a metagame perspective. In Standard, Olympia and Pokemon Center Lady are both very popular; and in Expanded, both AZ and Scoop Up Cyclone see a ton of play. In the face of menaces like these, what on Earth is your gimpy single Decidueye going to do?

(Remember, the Ability is called Feather Arrow — not "Feather Mosquito Bite." If you're gonna play Decidueye, go all the way in!)

 

Standard Options

Vileplume — Running Decidueye GX with Item lock at first blush is the most stable, long-term approach to the deck. Although you are playing two thick Stage Two lines in the same deck, it's efficient to run the two together because you can Turbo-evolve both with a Forest of Giant Plants in play, and you can fetch missing pieces of either line with Revitalizer. Vileplume is also a natural partner to Decidueye because the Feather Arrow Ability is complimentary and indeed devastating as part of a lock strategy. To best illustrate this concept, let's take a look at a deck with an above-average count of switching options:

–Two Switch
–Two Float Stone
–One Escape Rope
–One Olympia
–Four VS Seeker to get back Olympia

I don't have to tell you how many of those options are starved the moment a Vileplume hits the board. This means that with as little as a single Decidueye and a well-timed Lysandre, you could win the game outright if your opponent has a vulnerable benched Pokemon. How's that for a Lock deck?!

 

Vespiquen —  Another option is to run the deck with Vespiquen, which has many of the same deck consctruction advantages to being paired with Decidueye GX that Vileplume does. While Vespiquen may lack the lock potential that Vileplume does, and while it won't be stealing nearly as many games, Vespiquen offers us our one and only way of getting a full attacker into play.

Big Basic Attackers  — A third idea which I've found interest in is pairing Decidueye GX with big neutral attackers like Tauros GX. This is in theory very similar to the Vespiquen approach, only a bit more space-efficient, slightly less offensive, and much more defensive. It's also by far the most cost-efficient way to run a dedicated Decidueye GX list, and may have the best shot at beating imposing Mega decks such as Rayquaza and Gardevoir. (Remember that Rayquaza can one-shot your Owls!).

What are some good Big Basic attackers aside from Tauros?

–Lugia EX: With Feather Arrows, your potentially gimpy Aero Balls are now at or above keeping up with Yveltal EX's Evil Balls. Also, Deep Hurricane aided with enough Feather Arrows can one-shot almost any Mega evolution.

–Trevenant EX: Offers a soft lock option similar to the above strategy discussed with Vileplume, only with Retreat block via Dark Forest. Very good in setting up clever plays where you keep an Active locked while slowly whittling away or evne Knocking Out Benched Pokemon.

–Celebi XY93: Theta Stop protects Celebi from opposing Feather Arrows; Sparkle Motion is great at getting odd-numbered Pokemon in range for Decidueye such as Shaymin EX, and a Heads on Leap Through Time can function as a wall in a pinch when you can't afford to give up a prize in close games.

 

Expanded Options

All of the above for standard — Remember that all of the above are respectable ways to run Decidueye in Expanded as well as Standard. I think with Battle Compressor, Decidueye/Vespiquen can become a lot more deadly so long as you have a way to cope with Archeops (or otherwise KO it really quickly).

Other than Mewtwo EX, not that many tech options emerge. However, some interesting variations with big Basics at the heart of the deck emerge:

Seismitoad EX  — The theory here is essentially the same as with the Vileplume variants, only a lot more space-efficient.  For three spaces over 6-9, cutting Vileplume dashes your hopes for a turn one obliteration in exchange for a smoother, more streamlined game. It's also much more hopeful to cope with Archeops when you have a well-timed Seismitoad that could theoretically Lysandre it up and then subsequently attack a few times.

As one last note for this variant, I am struggling to decide whether I want to include Hypnotoxic lasers or not. I'm strongly leaning against it for consistency's sake, but if you are on the boards and have a separate take, leave me a line!

Virizion/Genesect — This is an untested gimmick, but I like the theory behind it because the deck is fully functional without Decidueye. Muscle Band/Emerald Slash is by itself enough to defeat an Archeops, and by that point you can lay waste to your opponent with a brutal combination of Megalo Cannon and well-placed Feather Arrows. You also see a lot of that all-important Grass synergy through Revitalizer. My one major concern is that this is likely to be highly inconsistent. You also might be much better off by pairing Virizion EX/Genesect EX with Lurantis GX, which seems to be a much more natural partner for those two.

 

Virgen/Lurantis — La Ménage à Lurantrois for another day???

 

Conclusion

I hope this in-depth review of Decidueye GX got your creative juices flowing. It's an incredible card, and while I don't blame you for being scared of Volcanion and Garbodor, it would be a fantastic choice for the upcoming Anaheim, CA Regional Championship. It would also be a great choice for the Collinsville, IL Regional Championship, despite being in a totally separate format.

 

It's been five years since the last time I've preordered a card — Darkrai EX from Dark Explorers to be precise, which went on to win Worlds three times. I don't think Decidueye will be pulling off something crazy like that, but there is very rarely such a "wow" card as this.

Good luck, everyone!