The constant Regionals carousel is both a blessing and a curse. On one hand, there is always something significant going on throughout the season, and you can “hop on” after a lengthy period of inactivity at almost any point during the first half of the season. On the other hand, staying up to date and well-practiced with both formats is easier said than done.
We’re a mere four days away from the Regional Championship in Collinsville, and I can safely say that…I don’t feel safe. At all. Whereas my last tournament prediction article was fairly confident, I have little clue what to play. Since I’m sure hundreds of other people are in the exact same position as I am, thought that rather than offer hardline recommendations on what to play, I could help you through the thought process of choosing a deck – the exact same process which I’m going through right now.
The Difficulties of Moving from Standard to Expanded
For the most part, competitive players live in Standard. It’s the format for at least 70% of smaller tournaments, a majority of Regional Champoinships, all Intercontinental Championships, and the World Championships. For that reason, it’s often a difficult shift from Standard to Expanded, especially since Expanded has many, many more sets at its disposal…15 main sets, two mini-sets, and 100 promos, to be precise!
1. Different metagame
More variety means more decks, and you’ve got at your disposal the entire history of the last five years. That means some of these decks are older than your children! And your results depend much more heavily on your metagame calls, since some decks are incredibly powerful in the face of unprepared fields.
…Deck and Covers, to be precise.
A good example is Mikey Fouchet’s second place victory at Pennsylvania earlier this season with Accelgor. Ever since this card’s release, the game’s creators have only released more and more hate towards auto-Paralysis, including Pokemon Center Lady, AZ, Keldeo EX/Float Stone, Virizion EX, Wonder Energy, Steel Shelter, Olympia, and even Big Malasada!
(…Well, maybe not.)
You would think that with all these easily-splashable hard counters, Accelgor would never have a place at any tournament where it’s legal. Yet Mikey made the call and profited from the decision. Plus, you’ve only got so many copies of a hate card before it runs out, especially if you’re not hard-teching for Deck and Cover. We also see the same happen with other classic decks of days gone by, including new versions of Eelektrik NVI and Sableye DEX: Even if a deck gains nothing after release of a new set, it could still be a great choice by virtue of the choices everyone else is making.
I've been swimmin' in formats longer than you've been swimmin' in papa.
2. Card Interactions
Of course, new sets coming out can also result in old favorites becoming much more playable. Continuing with our example of Accelgor, it’s changed a lot ever since initial release:
2012: Accelgor/Chandelure NVI/Vileplume UD (can be nearly 100% replicated now thanks to Vileplume AOR)
2013: Accelgor/Gothitelle EOP
2014: Accelgor/Trevenant XY
2015-present: Accelgor/Wobbuffet PHF/other partners
Think about that for a moment: in the half-decade since Accelgor first came out, it’s had at least four very successful iterations, winner more scholarships and cash combined than you may make in a year! That’s because with everything the card pool theoretically took away, the card pool gave back in other avenues. It’s another story entirely if you get the benefits for early adoption of a new variant or idea for the immediate Regional, but playing with your choices and exploring new options can make Expanded feel like the fun mess that it is.
Leading by Following: Relying on the Constants
It’s four days until Collinsville Regionals and a new set is out, yet I still feel somewhat blind. Even as an old school player, it’s still hard to account for not only the latest card interactions, but the trends of the metagame. If Anaheim’s Regional Championship is anything to go by, constantly successful decks work. Of course if my or Drew Kennett’s performances at Anaheim are anything to go by, new decks can work, too.
Based on a combination of hype and proven results, here is what I consider a good last-minute gauntlet for Collinsville:
Yveltal/Maxie’s
Turbo Darkrai
Trevenant
Darkrai/Giratina
Raikou/Eels
Accelgor
Toadbats
Decidueye/Seismitoad EX
Greninja
Night March
Zygarde/Carbink
Sableye/Garbodor
Primal Groudon
Wailord
Lurantis GX variants
Solgaleo GX variants
Those are a lot of decks, but I’m convinced that if what you play can beat most or even all of the above decks, then you as an individual have a really good chance of winning Regionals this weekend. Of course, that’s just the thing, isn’t? It’s so hard to find something capable of so much metagame coverage, but I think I have four things that will be respectable options: Yveltal/Maxie’s, Decidueye-something, Lurantis-something, or Seismitoad-anything.
1. Something Old
In the face of such an overwhelmingly large, complex metagame, the first and perhaps simplest choice is to run Yveltal/Maxie’s. The advantages are that it’s a proven deck, you beat many fringe rogue ideas that could pop up, and you know a lot of mirror will be at Collinsville, making designing your list easier. The main disadvantage is that you have a very big target on your back. At Anaheim’s Standard format Regional Championship, a lot of decks were prime contenders to win that tournament, and I’m confident that if there are alternate universes, there’s a pretty nice spread of decks winning between each of those universes. For the instant Regional, everyone is thinking about Yveltal as a threat, even if it’s not their choice, potentially starving its maximum potential. As a result, we’ll be getting either one of two possibilities: an Yveltal/Maxie tag-team beat down, or a whole lot of insurgent decks making day two and perhaps even winning.
Then there’s the other way to look at choosing “something old” – choosing the deck you know best. That doesn’t necessarily mean playing your favorite deck, but maybe running the deck you yourself have had the most success with in the past, or you’re most skilled at piloting. This makes Yveltal/Maxie’s an attractive choice to me, as I’ve been using Yveltal since it came out. This also makes Decidueye an attractive option since it just won me money at my first and only regional this season.
2. Something New
Speaking of Decidueye…running something new has its advantages, as well. Barring that leafy, ghosty owl I love so much, very few things in Sun and Moon are getting much attention. In all of our rush to “beat tier one,” perhaps we’re ignoring the powerful new possibilities there are? One deck that jumps out to me as being a uniquely good choice in Expanded is Lurantis GX. I know I’m not the only writer who feels this way, but it has great matchups against several of the above-listed decks, including Yveltal, Toadbats, and Trevenant. Additionally, threats such as Ability lock and even Evolution lock aren’t nearly as potential as they normally would be: Lurantis GX is a self-reliant Stage One Pokemon, so its own necessity for Abilities is fairly low, and its Ability to Hex Maniac its way out of Archeops is a real threat.
3. Something Blue
Finally, there’s Seismitoad EX. While I haven’t seen the old Toad put up big results at Expanded Regionals this season, it is a constant this format and will continue to do well for as long as it’s legal. No other card gets the most goodies out of an Expanded with Sun and Moon legal than the Quaking Punch monster: in addition to Decidueye GX as a possible alternative to Toadbats, you get Tauros GX as an incredible backup attacker, and Team Skull Grunt as a new way to starve your opponent of resources. Thus, as we discussed earlier with Accelgor, decks that get the most additions to their arsenal when an expansion come out typically do well, making Seismitoad with anything a really respectable call.
Like Lurantis, you could theoretically go very deep into the tournament with a Seismitoad list that’s strong against the mirror. My only concern is that most Seismitoad variants struggle a lot against many of the above-listed decks – perhaps explaining why it hasn’t put up the results that Yveltal has.
Conclusion
I hope my thought process helps you crystallize your own deck choice for the Collinsville Regional if you’re going. In situations like these where you feel lost, it’s incredibly helpful not just to have a variety of good choices available, but to know what makes them good choices in the first place.
‘Til next time, Trainers.