Final Reflections Before Indy

We’re a mere day away from the North American International Championships, and even now I’m not entirely sure on what I want to play. Worse yet, of the decks I’m considering playing, I’m unsure what kind of a list I’d use for either! This is a lot like how I felt before St. Louis, however, which is probably not a bad sign.

Listed below are my brief impressions of every major deck headed into the big dance…

Zoroark variants: This is the deck that’s been getting all the results, but even more importantly all of the hype. In a Standard format where Garbodor is a constant threat, it’s awfully reassuring to have a deck that not only beats Garbodor, but holds up well against the rest of the format. It has its bad matchups for sure, but there is a very high “floor” to how a reasonably good player would do with this deck. By that I mean it seems highly unlikely for a player using this deck to go less than a positive record, similar to Night March last season. It also punishes misplays severely, which is probably related to the fact you’ll never go worse than 5-4 with this thing.

Garbodor variants: Like Zoroark, Garbodor is a highly cushioned deck thanks to the sheer number of players who will misplay their Items and Energy. However, at least some of the people who may’ve been surprised by its dominance in Seattle are now more than ready to handle Trashalanche now. Many people have even resorted to flat-out awful list calls, solely in an effort to run fewer Items…I being one of those people. While Garbodor has its current reputation for good reason, it just doesn’t beat Zoroark, and is getting hit by progressively worse matchups as time goes on. Among the “big three,” which include Garbodor, Zoroark, and Vespiquen, I see Garbodor headed in the least favorable metagame direction. That said, a great list with a great player behind it is probably going to go far, especially if any would-be counters to Zoroark prove successful.
Vespiquen: While Zoroark inherits Night March’s high floor and high ceiling for results, Vespiquen inherits the general flow and core mechanics of Night March. As I predicted in my chat with Kirk Dube and Christopher Schemanske, this deck would be a big deal, so much so that Oricorio is still struggling to make enough of a difference to tilt the matchup for decks that need help against it.

Greninja: This probably has the most low-key hype going into Internationals, and is probably your best bet if you desperately need a deep run. Of every deck featured here, it has precious few poor matchups, and they all have to do with Weakness. The entirety of “tier one” (according to the public) is even or positive matchups for Greninja, and a lot of the lower tiers are easy pickings, too. However, competitive players have been the spent year theorizing about Greninja’s erratic results, with the reasoned conclusion that it can easily crash and burn. The best 2/3 match play structure cushions Greninja from this variance, but I think you’ll need insane variance on your side if you want to win with this deck. Nevertheless, it’s a great choice as long as you dodge Decidueye.

Gyarados: Gyarados doesn’t seem to boast enough strong matchups to justify running it over my favored Water deck (Greninja). This is especially apparent when stacked up to the big three of the format. It also suffers just as badly from awkward hands, which will surely compound as the long day goes on.

Metagross: If you’re looking for a swarm deck that’s more consistent but with a tighter window for probable success, then Metagross is an excellent call. Of all the decks you may use, this is probably best suited for people more concerned with getting those last few points for a Worlds invite; a surefire top 256, but may struggle to make Day Two.

Volcanion: While you can build Volcanion to beat practically anything in the current format, the probable techs and choices people will lean towards at the last second all seem to disfavor Volcanion. It also doesn’t help that of those three decks at the top, all of them can run Vaporeon alongside an Eeveelutions line – a more-often-than-not death sentence to Volcanion. Add on several of the other weak matchups it has, as well as the fact that the metagame is no longer centralized around a Fire-Weak Decidueye, and Volcanion just doesn’t look like an attractive play at all.

Decidueye: This is my baby and it’s hard to let go. It also doesn’t help that the deck’s basically attached to my name, starving the sort of unpredictability that made it such a good call at the beginning of the year. Garbodor matchups are still its white whale, and I’ve struggled a lot to find a good formula to handle them, but it puts up incredible numbers against all other relevant decks.

Darkrai: Deck’s dead. Hope I’m proven wrong but it’ll need a big boost from Darkrai GX in time for Worlds.

Vikavolt: Deck ain’t dead and it’s probably at the peak of its hype, but considering how much it struggles vs Zoroark, I would feel hard-pressed to justify using it. Fighting Fury Belts can also exploit the vulnerability in most Zoroark lists (no Fury Belt), and it seems to match up decently against anything that might see a surprise resurgence (Greninja, Zygarde rogue, Decidueye). However, it only hard-wins against one of these decks, and its so-called counter to Zoroark can itself be countered by a Reverse Valley/Choice Band combo from Zoroark adding up to huge Damage totals.

Decks that would be generally good plays: Zoroark, Garbodor, Greninja, Metagross

Decks that can do very well if you avoid bad matchups: Decidueye, Vikavolt

Decks I wouldn’t touch with a ten-foot pole: Gyarados, Darkrai, Volcanion