Rogue Hunting at Malmo Regionals

Introduction

Another Regional tournament has come and gone — this time in Malmo, Sweden, and Decidueye enjoys another win! However, to just leave it at that would waste a lot of precious metagame analysis, as well as losing out on some interesting developments and a great story.

On Europe: Land of the (Also) Free

Despite some Pokemon communities on Facebook and Reddit reaching as many as 20,000 users, I believe that there's an incredible lack of depth in understanding between the various continents, tournaments, and their players, so I wanna take this quick opportunity to address that:

This season, Europe has had many Regionals and special events, just like the rest of the world. However, the distinguishing characteristic between Regionals in Europe (or everywhere else) and the United States is that Regional Championships in the United States are mind-numbingly massive.

Europe is getting close to making Pokemon great again as well, considering that the Malmo, Sweden regional is that country's second largest tournament in history. However, for various reasons caused by responsible persons at all levels, I'm not sure if European organized play is as large as it is in the United States. Thus, while the Regional tournaments there have seen a proportionately similar explosion in attendance, you simply can't compare the size or scope of the events.

As a result, flame wars start. Someone in a small European country may feel slighted by their acocmplishments not being respected, or an American who has to go through the grind at 500 and 700-person events may feel a bit envious. It'll happen, and the reactions to it will range from amusement to keyboard rage.

I'm here to tell you that much the same way young teenagers in Masters (ages 15+) try to belittle the accomplishments of younger teenagers in the Senior Division (ages 11-14), it's actually pretty silly for the various continents to belittle each other's accomplishments, whether those are wins or high placements. Here's why:

1. Mathematically, it's getting harder to win for everyone. The commentators at Collinsville were amused at how the U.S. Regionals of today are of the same size, player skill level, and dollar value of U.S. Nationals just 7-8 years ago. Likewise, European Regionals — once only as well-attended as large City Championships in the United States — are threatening to be larger than at least one or two U.S. Regionals!

(Sorry, Oregon!)

So where does that put Europe in relation to the U.S.? Assuming equal skill level, U.S. Regionals are generally much harder to do well at or win. If the average skill level is the same at both Regionals, and there are 500 people at one versus 300 at the other, there is simply no denying that the 500-person tournament is mathematically harder.

Take heart though, because there are many situations where making top eight or winning is actually much harder in Europe. Malmo Regionals for instance, which had 200 people and thus not enough for a day two, required a 6-1-1 record to advance to the top eight. That's tough stuff! Contrast that to Oregon, which may end up with just enough people for a day two, allowing for one of the most forgiving day two cutoffs of the entire season.


There, feel a bit better now? 😀

2. When good cash prizes are on the line, good players will be everywhere. In the two Regional Championships I played in, I had the pleasure of facing off against Ross "The Boss" Cawthon three times. That's because there's big money on the line at Regionals now, so you can bet your bottom dollar Rosses will be going to everything their schedules permit. Europe's Regionals are of a similar payout, so naturally their equivalent of a "Ross" will be highly likely to go to those events, as well, meaning you must overcome these challenges if you want to win a Regional. All Europe has to do now is agree who gets to be their Ross Cawthon equivalent. Is it Mees Brenninkmeijer? Someone else?

Nah, my money's on (T)Angela Merkel.

Deck Analysis

All right. Now that I'm done settling the incredibly funny "U.S. versus Europe" debate in about the most reasonable, comprehensive, non-trollish way ever put to pen, let's get into the meat of the entry: the decks
!

(Special thanks goes to both Complexity and Limitless TCG. Without their efforts, event coverage and discussion would have been much harder if not impossible.)

Champion: Gonçalo Ferreira (Decidueye GX/Vileplume AOR/Toolbox techs)

Poor Lugia got cut off!

This is Mr. Ferreira's second Regionals win this season, and what an incredible achievement it is! As we talked about in the Collinsville report, Decidueye's core list can switch out Energy quite easily, allowing for the use of tech attackers. Here, Gonçalo decided to replace his Grass with Rainbows in order to accommodate a tech Jolteon EX for the Volcanion matchup. Everything else, including the Espeon EX for mirror, achieves its purpose in a normal list running Grass Energy

The "potential" for this concept is incredibly deep, and doesn't necessary begin or end with running only Jolteon. You could also run a Glaceon EX for hate decks not quite as well represented, such as pesky Espeon GX/Wobbuffet variants or certain Mega Rayquaza builds. You might also want to keep a very close eye on how new big basics from Guardians Rising could influence the deck. For now though, do you really want to run more attackers that would require a colored Energy than Jolteon EX? …Probably not.

As one final note, I find it interesting how a lot of the European lists run two Shaymin EX over three. In any deck, the number of Shaymin EX you run should depend on the point at which you receive too just enough returns for each card's inclusion. It's the reason why I ultimately went down from four to three in time for Anaheim, and very well may be the reason why these players use only two. My decision to stay at three is based on two simple reasons: a belief that digging for turn one Vileplume and Decidueye is 100% worth the inclusion, and the utter fear of bricking with this deck. Three Shaymin help with both those concerns, but I still consider this very much open for debate.


Runner-Up: Mikael Jacobs (Decidueye GX/Espeon GX)

Decidueye GX/Espeon GX is one of those ideas people have stewed over, but never really gone for…that is, until last weekend. With this deck, you get to enjoy the power of Decidueye as well as the raw power of Espeon GX. You also enjoy access to the Ancient Origins Type-adding Eeveelutions, which can be teched as appropriate for your metagame. The list also has a lot of construction peculiarities, including 1/1 Shaymin EX/Oranguru, 3 VS Seeker, 3 Forest of Giant Plants, and 3 Trainers' Mail. All of these are justifiable in one way or another, but my mpression is that it is much weaker against the mirror than it could be otherwise. That could be alleviated with a faster Pokemon and draw line, as on average the normal Decidueye/Vileplume list will be outdrawing and outspeeding this. Nevertheless, the sheer versatility of these attackers allows for victory in slower games.

Of all the decks that did well in Malmo, I consider this one to make the biggest impact on the metagame.  It has answers to nearly everything in the metagame, including mirror, and whatever this particular list may struggle with could easily be changed for your own tournament scene.

Top Four: Karl Peters (Quad Lapras GX)

Perhaps the most unexpectedly successful deck of the weekend, Lapras GX is now another in a long line of attrition decks built to outlast its opponents. The result is that quite often your opponent will run out of resources simply trying to deal with Lapras, let alone actually killing it. Karl splashes in a little bit of everything that makes a Water Box deck great, but with an incredible amount of Energy denial as well.

This deck struggles against Decidueye, but not for the reasons you might think. Sure, you'd rather not have Weakness to Grass, but a Grass Weakness becomes mostly irrelevant when you can discard Energy. Unfortunately, therein lies the problem: You lose most of your Energy denial cards under Item lock! Furthermore, the brilliance of some inclusions, such as Team Skull Grunt as a natural counter to a Decidueye GX using Hollow Hunt to get back Energy cards, is limited by card count.

Furthermore, it's questionable against Turbo Darkrai. You may have a lot of Energy denial, but careful playing of resources at every point in the game can make this an incredibly difficult matchup for the Lapras player to win. Although Karl won his top eight match against Darkrai in a nailbiter, he's also a veteran of the game who saw a narrow window of opportunity to deck his opponent out, and went for it.

If you like Lapras and want to play what is among the format's least expensive decks, then you've found what you've been looking for! But unless you feel very confident against both Darkrai and Decidueye, you may want to steer clear of Lapras.

Top Four: Jindrich Nepevny (Mega Mewtwo/Espeon/Wobbufet)

Lastly we have a more traditional counter to the current metagame, albeit with some less conventional tweaks. Rather than run Garbodor, Jindrich opts for more Wobbbuffets. He also run a 1-1 Espeon GX line for the mirror and miscellaneous situations, a very high count on Float Stone, and only one Shaymin EX (!). That last call in particular kills me a bit: Despite running and hoping to start with Wobbuffet, you will still rely on and exploit Shaymin EX quite often, chaining those crucial turns where you need Mega Turbo and a Double Colorless to deal enough damage. With two copies you can do that quite often, but with one I foresee a lot of bricking situations.

Of the top four decks, Jindrich's was the best-equipped to beat Decidueye/Vileplume. Despite my above criticisms, this is a Mewtwo list built not only for early-game Ability lock, but to make Decidueye's Lysandre/Feather Arrow lock strategy against high Retreat Cost Pokemon impossible. It was just his bad fortune that he went up against Mikael, whose version of Decidueye clearly had the tools it needed to outmuscle Mega Mewtwo!

Conclusion

It was a lot of fun analyzing and considering the possibilities for each of these four decks! I hope this served as a good opportunity to de-mystify Europe for some of our American readers, as well as to explore some interesting decks that could have a long-lasting effect on the World stage.

(P.S. I promise I'll be putting out an Expanded-focused article later this week! Less frowning Oregons and more smiling ones!)

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