Pokemon Stock Market Part 1 (Value)

The Pokemon Stock Market

Part 1: Establishing Value

Intro

In the dark crevices of society, there lurks a hidden, shady underground: one that goes untaxed, unregulated, and un-acknowledged. It involves the trafficking of exotic creatures; it leads to long-term friendships; and it can even result in cold wars that would make Nikita Khruschev tremble in terror.

It is…The Pokemon Stock Market.

Many "un"s adequately describe Pokemon buying, trading, and selling, but unfortunately, "understood" is not always one of them. For that reason, I aim to educate new and old players alike on Pokemon card deals, their intricacies, and what it means for you in the long run.

Today, our topic is buying and selling cards for reasonable prices.

Standards for Buying and Selling

At league, tournaments, and the wild west of the internet, people are always making money deals involving cards – a rather telling thing about our community, since it realistically amounts to just trading one form of physically worthless paper for another form, no matter which end you're on. I've witnessed some extraordinary deals in the past: deals that have been major wins for both ends, but also many uneven exchanges. Thus, I deem it necessary to advise you on how to not find yourself caught up in a bad deal.

Since the hard physical value of a tiny piece of cardboard is less than a cent, the one real way to go about determining a grounded secondary value in these cards is to study the secondary market itself. This can be done in a number of ways, but I feel my following strategy will be optimal for helping you get an idea of what to value cards at.

The lynchpin in my strategy is not sticking to one absolute value to a card; rather I will use a RANGE of values for cards. This is because cards mean different things to people, and because different segments of the market are willing to pay only so much of their money. So whether we view cards as cherished collectibles, a form of currency, or something in the middle, it's important to keep in mind that who you're dealing with may not hold the exact same philosophy as you do.

The Copper Standard: Low-End Value

As a rule of thumb, this is the end of the scale most often represented by hobby shops, and is the lowest you should value cards at.  Since Troll and Toad  (sporadically referenced henceforth as "TnT") is fairly reputable, and has earned a reputation in the community for offering respectable deals, I felt like it'd be useful to reference their buy list prices as our main basis for a low-end exchange:

http://www.trollandtoad.com/buyingview.php?buylistid=9

Having sold mass amounts of cards for a variety of prices, I feel like this is a respectable bulk asking price: it accounts for shipping costs in its calculation, and stays moderately competitive with inflation. Keep in mind, though, that you shouldn't treat these exact totals as gospel, since these asking prices have shipping in mind (they don't pay it for you). Therefore,it might not be 100% valid to use this as a bargaining chip when dealing bulk in person.

The Gold Standard: High-End Value

If you'd like the HIGH end on cards, then simply go to www.trollandtoad.com , and then search for the name of a card that you're interested in. While there is plenty of room to debate how accurate these prices for the upper range are, Troll and Toad is a professional hobby business, so it is in their best interest to make mountains of money off of you. For that reason, it also makes sense to use a reputable hobby shop as some measure for more expensive prices. This is NOT meant to suggest that Troll and Toad has the highest prices; simply that their prices are the highest when within reason

However, don't take TnT as infallible, since you have at least three things to account for:

1) If a card's playability is about to shoot through the roof, and its pricing on TnT is dirt cheap, then it may be in your best interest to attach a higher value to it! For example, Cleffa HGSS was virtually worthless on many of the collectible sites before HeartGold/SoulSilver-on's announcement, but since then, it has indeed "shot through the roof."

2) If a card is out of stock, then there is a good chance that the price listed is not useful for negotiating trades/sales/purchases. Intuition would lead you to believe that the actual price should be higher, and for the most part you'd be correct; however, keep in mind that this is not always the case. For instance, if an online hobby shop circa 1999 had shadowed, unlimited base Charizard listed for $50.00 and never got in new stock, would that reflect its actual 2011 value? (For your information, it's typically seen sold at a minimum of $3.00 and a maximum of $15.00-$20.00 as of writing this.)

3) If the card is extremely rare, then the asking price could be too unrealistic. For example, card shops have been known to have copies of World Championship trophy cards on sale for thousands of dollars, but how many people are willing to pay that much? So few that you can't even respectably call it a "high end price" with a straight face, because it's in a class of its own.

The Silver Standard: Ebay Completed Auctions

Finally, the most reliable AVERAGE value (sporadically referenced as "true value," since it is usually what I operate on unless I'm playing vendor for a day) for a card is not found on Troll and Toad at all; instead, let's look at completed listings on Ebay over the past two weeks. This may seem challenging to do, but if you get the hang of it, then you can have a really solid understanding of how much a card ought to go for.

Do keep in mind a few pitfalls you may encounter while trying to discover a true market value:

1) There aren't enough samples to go off of! Usually you'll want at least three auctions to establish an average price, but sometimes there won't be that many. Should this situation arise, you can handle it in a variety of ways:

A) Stick with the sample size you have. Sometimes 1-2 auctions as a data set is fine, especially for rarer cards. However, be prepared to not get nearly as much for your cards.

B) Increase your range from a couple weeks to a few weeks, or even start looking back as far as months. For many in-rotation cards, recent data is key, but for out-of-rotation cards, it's not quite as important.

2) Oftentimes, some aspect about the auction may lead to the card selling for more or less than it should: its description could be poor, the picture may not accurately reflect the listing, etc. Additionally, cards are often sold in bulk over the internet, which will lead to every card selling for less than it's – on "average" – worth.

3) Additionally, some aspect about the seller may distort the end price of an auction. Usually this just amounts to a poor feedback score, but it can also tie in to the user having no feedback, or to the user not having sold Pokemon before (this third point is negligible).

Final Thoughts

It may seem tough sometimes to figure out how to deal in a market that's based solely on secondary values, but this guide should point you in the right direction. Just remember to use your best judgment, and I'm sure you'll do great in your next deal!

Until next time,

-HeyTrainer

[Fun Fact: as of writing, an ounce of first edition English Charizard cards from Base Set sells for a higher price than an ounce of gold!!!]
 

(This gold Burger King Charizard, on the other hand, is worth less…Much, much less.)

Today's post was written by the HeyTrainer.org staff. If you liked this article and would like to read more of its kind, then please consider donating to /blog in the lower-left corner of the page!